The rest of Q&A

Q – We seem to be getting more and more cruise offers at home which would indicate that the cruise lines are in trouble. Yet, for the most part, you have indicated they are not. Why this flurry of deals and special offers from the top cruise like the ones Churchill & Turen represents and do you, quite frankly, have the same offers?

A – Love this question. Your perception is correct. There are more offers and part of the reason is that marketing folks have to earn their keep. Many years ago, we advised guests to always use the “Cruisetruth Mathematical Model” to determine the true price of your cruise.

Take the least expensive, outside balcony stateroom and determine the total cost including port charges but leaving off air and insurance. Then divide by two. Then, divide that number by the number of nights you will spend aboard the ship. That will give you the true “per diem” cost per person and you can then compare that pricing with other cruises you might be thinking about taking.

The cruise industry is not “in trouble”. There is considerable Pandemic-related debt to be paid down, but as of yesterday, for instance, Royal Caribbean stock was up 114% for the year. (They own Celebrity and Silversea)/ Several major lines are operating currently at occupancy rates above 100%. 

As to the deals. We can use Regent Seven Seas as an example. They currently have an offer on a wide range of sailings that includes a three-night land program at the beginning or end. Sounds great. And, like virtually all cruise advertising, it assumes that the consumer is totally deal-focused and will believe anything. So what is missing in these deals? The worst thing that can happen on a Seabourn cruise, or a Tauck Tour, for that matter, is a discussion where a large number of loyal guests realized that if they had just waited until the last minute to book they would have received a better offer. And you know what? That does happen on Carnival, on Norwegian, and on Royal Caribbean. Last-minute deals happen all the time on a four and five thousand guest ships.

But the world’s top ten ranked cruise lines, which are the focus of our firm,  do not generally do that because they realize that those who book earliest are their most reliable core clients. And they have absolutely no interest in alienating their most loyal guests. We know many of these top executives. They are highly intelligent and aware men and women who have no interest in trying to train high-income, sophisticated cruisers to wait until the last minute to score a price deal that can be bragged about over cocktails on the ship. 

The cruise industry’s goal is not to simplify pricing so every consumer understands it clearly. Just the opposite. Their commissioned call center personnel are trained to try to get you to spend the most you can when you call.

The luxury lines fully understand that people talk aboard ships and it could cause major problems if those who booked last-minute received better pricing than those first 25% of guests putting down deposits – often more than a year in advance.

There is a major cruise myth perpetrated by the media that would make it seem that every cruise line goes out and negotiates different pricing with every travel agency group – with each price negotiated separately so there are hundreds of pricing models in the cruise line’s computer system. And, you have to believe that the cruise line management is so stupid that they put out pricing to the public that undercuts the pricing they are offering in-house. 

What many of our guests do not realize is that the top lines have a regular schedule of rising prices as each ship fills. On one of the very top-ranked lines, for example, the prices generally are raised every 90 days. So while they may offer a land program, in the example you used, when you book it you are being charged a fare that has been raised several times which helps defray the cost of the package. You are not getting a better deal than those who booked earliest.

With tour operators that meet our stringent requirements, there is no discounting at all. The worst thing Tauck could ever do to a long-time tour guide is to have twenty-four guests on the bus who have paid a wide variety of prices for the same program. Guests would be unhappy and the company might well lose one of its best guides.

Finally, you asked about our firm. Since we have held executive positions in the industry and fully understand pricing models, we take a different approach. Instead of playing foolish and misleading pricing games, we state, in writing, that we will seek out the best current legitimate offer and we will refund 100% of that offer to the guests. We have not, in 38 years, ever retained any portion of the discounts due to any guest of our firm. We’re sure there are other luxury travel firms that share this policy but we feel better presenting it in a legal format.

Apologies for the long response. You hit a nerve. Every travel supplier wants its guests to take action to book. The best way to do that, they feel, is to make every guest feel that they are receiving a very special offer. That is why you keep getting mailing offers at home. Use our Cruisetruth Pricing Model and you will always know exactly how good an offer you have received. Define your own “Per Diem” comfort level and don’t be shy about advising your advisor about the figure you have in mind. 

Thank you for your important question.

Q – I thought you had written something a while back that indicated that an airline can give your seat away even after it is confirmed and you have it in writing. Can that be true?

A – Yes. The fine print on every ticket indicates that you have been assigned seats that can change. This does happen more than you might imagine for two primary reasons: The first is when there is a change of equipment. When that happens, airline computers will arbitrarily assign new seats based on the newly assigned aircraft’s seating plan. The other scenario when seats are changed without your knowledge has to do with the needs of one of the airline’s elite fliers. Airlines can and do give booked seats to their most frequent, million-mile fliers. This is one reason we always advise flyers to download the airline’s app to check from time to time that their assigned seats have not been changed.

Q – We are now fully retired, although I do some consulting in the field of Environmental Law, and my wife and I are ready to start living some of our dreams – most of which center around eating some incredible, best available, meals. We want to start planning two or three major trips a year where we can find, quite literally, the top-rated restaurants on the planet. I guess you can call us Obsessive Foodies with an emphasis on “obsessive”. 

Obviously, we would try to knock out several of the world’s best on each trip. But how to find out where the best restaurants are and what to say when we call them up for a reservation? And where to begin? Does any such list that is actually respected in the Restaurant Industry actually exist? And where would you start if we want to begin at the very top of the list and then work our way down? As you can see, this is all in the beginning planning stages but we really want to take off next summer on the first of two or three journeys next year in search of “The Planet’s Best Meals”.

There may be a book or a blog involved in this project but that is really secondary to amazing dining memories and, let’s be honest, some bragging rights. Are you aware of anyone who has done this before and actually worked their way down the line from 1-10? Can’t wait for your response and kudos for an intriguing site that allows open questions like this with no apparent financial motive.

A – OK. Let’s see if we can help you organize this. It has been done before and, yes, there is an “officially” recognized and respected list each year of the World’s Best Restaurants. There are clients of ours who have tried to include the very top-tier restaurants but, if you want to “do the list” be aware that it refers to the “Best Fifty Restaurants in the World” so you will need to plan carefully.  

The most respected list in the industry is called “The World’s Best Restaurants” and it was launched by an impressive group of chefs, food editors, and writers in 2002. It has, since it was launched, gained a great deal of respect within the international dining community. Last year’s winners were Noma and Geranium, both located in Copenhagen which quickly became a gourmet food destination to those in the know. 

The group has a strong rule that no restaurant can gain the top spot more than once so everyone in the restaurant industry worldwide was quite interested in which restaurant would get the top spot in 2023 and where it might be located. Given the number of Michelin restaurants on the list, Japan was thought to be a serious contender.  

You will first be headed to Peru on your life journey. Lima’s Central has been inching up the list since 2013 but it got a boost when one of the owners,Virgilio Martinez, was featured on Netflix “Chef’s Table” series.

The restaurant is in the coastal Barranco neighborhood. You will be served a 12 or 14-course tasting menu at a cost per person of just under $300. We thought you might like to see where the rest of your travels will be taking you if you literally decide to do the full list of the World’s Best Restaurants. Lima, by the way, has an amazing four restaurants on the list making it the world’s premier Foodie destination.

In terms of travel planning, no restaurants in India or on the African Continent made the list. Here are the 2023 Restaurants named the Best in the World:

The Complete List of The World’s 50 Best Restaurants 2023

1. Central (Lima, Peru) – Best Restaurant in South America
2. Disfrutar(Barcelona, Spain) – Best Restaurant in Europe
3. Diverxo(Madrid, Spain)
4. Asador Etxebarri(Atxondo, Spain)
5. Alchemist(Copenhagen, Denmark)
6. Maido(Lima, Peru)
7. Lido 84(Gardone Riviera, Italy)
8. Atomix(New York City) – Highest Climber, Best Restaurant in North America
9. Quintonil(Mexico City, Mexico)
10. New: Table by Bruno Verjus(Paris, France) – Highest New Entry
11. New: Trèsind Studio(Dubai, UAE) – Best Restaurant in the Middle East and Africa
12. A Casa do Porco(São Paulo, Brazil)
13. Pujol(Mexico City, Mexico)
14. Odette(Singapore) – Best Restaurant in Asia and Chef’s Choice: Julien Royer
15. New: Le Du(Bangkok, Thailand)
16. Reale(Castel di Sangro, Italy)
17. New: Gaggan Anand(Bangkok, Thailand)
18. Steirereck(Vienna, Austria)
19. Don Julio(Buenos Aires, Argentina)
20. Quique Dacosta(Dénia, Spain)
21. Den(Tokyo, Japan)
22. Elkano(Getaria, Spain)
23. New: Kol (London, England)
24. Septime(Paris, France)
25. Belcanto(Lisbon, Portugal)
26. Schloss Schauenstein(Fürstenau, Switzerland)
27. Florilège(Tokyo, Japan)
28. New: Kjolle(Lima, Peru)
29. Boragó(Santiago, Chile)
30. Frantzén (Stockholm, Sweden)
31. Mugaritz(San Sebastian, Spain)
32. Hiša Franko(Kobarid, Slovenia)
33. New: El Chato(Bogotá, Colombia)
34. Uliassi(Senigallia, Italy)
35. Ikoyi (London, England)
36. New: Plénitude(Paris, France)
37. New: Sézanne(Tokyo, Japan)
38. The Clove Club(London, England)
39. The Jane(Antwerp, Belgium)
40. Restaurant Tim Raue(Berlin, Germany)
41. Le Calandre (Rubano, Italy)
42. Piazza Duomo(Alba, Italy)
43. Leo(Bogotá, Colombia)
44. Le Bernardin(New York City)
45. Nobelhart & Schmutzig(Berlin, Germany)
46. New: Orfali Bros(Dubai, United Arab Emirates)
47. Mayta(Lima, Peru)
48. New: La Grenouillère(La Madelaine-sous-Montreuil, France)
49. New: Rosetta(Mexico City)
50. The Chairman(Hong Kong)

Finally, in terms of getting reservations: Do not try calling them on your own. Instead, work with a travel advisor well-versed in food and fine dining. Your advisor should be part of a consortium that has offices in the countries where you will be headed. You will want reservations requested by a local who will have the inside track on securing often, impossible to get, reservations.

We have clients who just returned from dinners at both Noma and Geranium during a one-week visit to Denmark. They booked the best hotel in the city and got to know the lead Concierge. They arrived at the hotel with a carefully thought-out gift for the Concierge. They reported that each dining experience was well worth the effort and the price.

For the record, we don’t feel that anything about your plan is obsessive. You are focused and we suspect that your focus will result in a suitcase full of truly memorable journeys. And you may become more in demand as a cocktail party guest. Enjoy it all and don’t fill up on the bread. 

Q – Really interesting site – just stumbled across you via some algorithm hidden in the bowels of Google’s basement. Two weeks ago, on business in DC, I was checking in at the JW Marriott. I had checked and I knew, for a fact, that the next category up, a junior suite was available. I asked the front desk, and then the front desk manager, if they would consider an upgrade. They politely refused even though I am every kind of Marriott frequent stayer there is. As a security consultant (you can read anything into that you want) I could not believe they would refuse to upgrade me when I was checking in at 8:30 PM. 

One of my co-workers had almost the same scenario occur at the Grand Hyatt in LA. He is an off-the-charts Hyatt frequent traveler. I know you weren’t there – but wondering if you can think of any explanation that is making it harder and harder to secure hotel upgrades?

A – In other words you are a part-time security guard  who wants a free upgrade? No worries – you are asking a serious question and the tend you have noticed is, we think, very real. There are several possible reasons applicable to specific properties but you may very well be looking at a change in upgrade procedures that is a result of pandemic financial losses and a severe shortage of housekeeping staff. There are wage increaese pressures, threats of unionization, and a failing attempt by four and five star hotels to get guests to willingly forego housekeeping services.

Some of this is, we suspect, mathematical. The time spent cleaning a suite is greater than the time spenmt cleaning a standard-size room. The amenities and in-room cleaning requirements are greater.

One of the not so public issues that has arisen as hotels emerge from the pandemic with higher, much higher, average occupancy rates is the amount of time maids can spenmd cleaning rooms. In many larger cities like Los Angeles, hotels are addressing their increasing costs for housekeeping services by placing limits on the actual number of square feet a maid can clean. The number we are hearing is 3,500 square feet per day. After that the maid, or “room attendant” has completed their work and must be paid for a full day or, perhaps, be compensated at “overtime” wages. 

So upgrading you to any kind of suite would have increased the maid’s square foot coverage, would take more time, and would, if done frequently enough, more additional housekeeping staff.

The maid’s unions are in a stronger position then they have ever been and room cleaning services are increasingly going to be viewed by hotels as services for which the guest must sign-up and expect to pay for the “extra” services. 

In this environment, comp room upgrades are going to become less frequent.

Q – What is the biggest mistake you think clients make when planning their vacations? Is it where they travel or more, how they travel?

A – Many upscale travelers reject the notion of traveling with other like-minded people out of hand. Many of our guests are unaware that there are several, not many, tour firms that appeal specifically to intelligent and relatively sophisticated travelers. It is also true that many of our guests will not even consider a cruise vacation because of the many stereotypes regarding mega-ships at sea. The fact is, that when you did down deep enough, there really is a ship for everyone. You just have to be open to the discussion. 

Other “mistakes” might include a reluctance to do off-season travel when recommended to do so. In a general sense, we would argue that the consumer’s tendency to believe social media posts by so-called “influencers” and very part-time travel writers and agents, has created a dung heap of phony and purchased reviews designed to spread product quality misinformation. In public forums and on talk radio we use this example: If you loaded up a bus filled with friends and headed out to the largest indoor mall in your area and then stopped the first 500 people you saw to ask them if they could name the world’s top-rated cruise line – we believe not more than one or two would know. And that is being optimistic. 

Our industry, the nation’s third largest, is so filled with deceit and misrepresentation, that a majority of consumers cannot describe how their travel agent is compensated.

Q – Will the hotel rates we are seeing, many over $2000 per night at five-star properties, stay steady in 2024?

A – No – nothing in this current environment will be steady. Hotels will be charging as much as they can given the losses still being felt during the pandemic. The new Aman Hotel in Venice, for example, has starting prices that are approaching $3000 per night. Hotel rates, much like cruise pricing, are not normally controlled by humans. There are algorithms that control pricing increases once a certain occupancy rate is achieved. Price increases are slow and steady and the one rule of thumb is that the first 25% of guests to book a property tend to get the best rate. Occupancy in Europe is now running 37% ahead of its peak in 2019 in terms of American visitors. But that is also true of Indian visitors, visitors from all over Europe and the South Pacific. Records are being broken and that is slowing down getting firm rates for better properties in 2024 and 2025. Many of the hotels we work with along the Amalfi Coast, for instance, are delaying price quotes because truth be told, they just don’t know how much they can charge and operate at 100%.

Given current demand, no one is predicting a rapid decrease in room pricing. The industry still has to compensate for two years of closed properties and staff depletion. 

Q – Any guesses as to what impact the 2024 election will have on international travel? Is there any evidence that travel will slow down in the months up to and after the election because people will want to stick around to see if we still have a democracy in place? Will this result in more availability and lower pricing? We will be doing a highly anticipated Rhine River Cruise on Scenic and we are wondering if we will see far fewer Americans traveling abroad in the weeks leading up to our so-called election?

A – The election cycle theory holds that the number of Americans traveling overseas declines by 15-20% in the months preceding and following a national election. But we’ve seen very little empirical evidence of a slowdown during the Presidential election cycle. Yes, there are folks who will want to stick close to their TVs and computer screens, but there may be an equal number that just wants to get away from the “noise” for a while. It is good to remember that the average high school student in Italy has been to far more countries abroad than the average adult American. Our election travel trends will not have a major impact on pricing or availability overseas. The topic might be brought up more often but we don’t foresee any major impact on your travel plans. 

Q – My husband and I are soooo tired of reading online reviews. We don’t know how people in your profession do it. We want to spend about a week in Venice next year, staying at the very best property in a junior suite. We realize from our readings that Venice doesn’t require a week but we’ll use it as a base and take some day trips to Verona and elsewhere. Our questions just boils down to which is the best hotel. And if we didn’t know about you, how would we go about getting the answer from a travel agent here in Austin? 

A – A really good consultant has access to certified hotel inspection reports written by industry professionals after a series of undercover visits. This is not available. Generally speaking, when you look at three or four of these reviews, ad-free and hype-free, you will know which hotel seems right for you.

That said, there are two properties that now dominate the upper echelon of Venetian hotels.

Occupying its own out-island, about 20 minutes from San Marco Square, the Cipriani has always been regarded as the very best place to stay in Venice.  The food and service are exquisite. This is a Belmond property and insiders love the wooden terrace at Cip’s Club that faces the Doge’s Palace.  For Michilin-starred dining, you would want to try the Oro Restaurant. There is an Olympic-size pool and the highly-regarded Casanova Wellness Center.

Then there is the newcomer – arriving with sparkling credentials belonging to the Traveltruth top-ranked hotel group in the world. The Aman Venice has just opened and it features 24 rooms and suites. You will feel that you are staying in a museum in this centrally-located 16th-century palazzo. 

If you want the best in Venice, we would suggest you have just completed your search.

Q – Discovered you about eight hours ago while looking for a travel site that had anything at all to do with the word “truth”. I work in financial planning here in Santa Monica and I am, fortunately, in a position where I can take off with my wife any month to go virtually anywhere. I am wondering how you are now advising your clients when it comes to 2024/2025 and beyond travel planning to Europe and the Orient given the likely scenarios of declining windows of satisfactory touring weather and conditions. When we are on vacation we try not to pass out en route to major sites and getting dizzy from the heat and not knowing where I am only makes sense to me if I am near my home in the parking lot of an In-N-Out Burger. Thanks. Short answer is fine, we’ll talk soon.

A – Good question – one that we are being asked often in a variety of ways. Let’s start with the Orient. Japan and South Korea have longer seasons but we are now recommending that destinations including Vietnam and Cambodia are best visited in the winter months from November through the first week in March, And even then, the humidity and the heat will require careful pacing. 

June through August has always been the prime season in Europe. Then word started seeking out that the French, followed closely by the Italians like to take off almost the entire month of August. Many store owners and restaurateurs own summer getaways and despite the potential for significant lost income, they are still willing to close their shutters to fully utilize scheduled vacation time. 

Given the decline of many services due to labor shortfalls in August, September has become the best month to enjoy southern Europe. But given the last two summers, September splendor is giving way to more heat, humidity, and growing crowds including large numbers of visitors from India, Russia, and Scandinavia. So we now have some key weeks that look best for travelers with the kinds of options you enjoy. For travel within southern Europe this is what we are currently recommending for those whose schedules have flexibility without the need to adhere to school schedules:

• April 20 – May 20
• September 20 – October 20

We stopped predicting the weather as though we knew what we are talking about several years ago. But our best guess is that, given current weather patterns, these are the premier times to plan future travels within southern Europe. Thanks for finding us. We’ll try not to let you down.

Q – My long-time travel agent in Alexandria, Va. is, unfortunately, retiring. In a recent conversation, she mentioned something about our being her “favorite FIT Lovers”. She seemed to think we knew what that meant – but we didn’t. Did not want to show our ignorance but as we have been traveling with her counsel for more than fifteen years, I wonder if you might know what she meant. 

A – The term stands for “Foreign Independent Tour” and it is shorthand in the industry for travelers who prefer a personally-curated private journey instead of a set group tour. Travel agents who do FIT’s well are fairly rare. It involves utilizing hundreds of contacts abroad and designing complete itineraries on a custom basis. Agents who do FIT’s sometimes charge by the hour, but many do FIT’s on a flat-rate basis. Once a program is completed and the final itinerary is presented to the guests the final price reflects a mark-up of from 15-30% depending on complexity. These days, many FIT specialists charge a flat rate of $500-$1000 per person. 

To put the charges in perspective, when a major group tour supplier sets out to design a new group tour it takes a team working two to three years to complete the project. When you ask a travel advisor to create the same thing just for you the process can truly be time-consuming. 

Your agent was complimenting you. She was saying that you prefer to go your own way rather than going along with a set group program. Nothing wrong with being a FIT “Lover” but it can, over the course of several years, get expensive.